倉庫に余るコメは過去最大の水準に 卸売業者「最後の最後には赤字でも…」
Japan's rice surplus in warehouses has reached an all-time high, with wholesalers reportedly facing losses to offload inventory. Online discussions question the reasons for this excess, including the impact of imported rice, while many consumers express willingness to buy if prices were lower.
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Minimum Access Rice
Minimum Access Rice refers to Japan's obligation, under the WTO's Uruguay Round Agreement, to import a fixed amount (approximately 770,000 tons) of foreign-produced rice annually. This system was introduced to open up the domestic rice market and promote international food trade. This imported rice is often primarily used for processing or animal feed and rarely circulates as direct table rice, but its presence can affect the supply-demand balance of domestic rice. For example, if domestic rice production is abundant and stocks are excessive, the import of Minimum Access Rice can further accelerate oversupply in the domestic market, putting downward pressure on rice prices. In reality, with domestic rice consumption declining year by year, the consistently imported Minimum Access Rice is often discussed as a contributing factor to the surplus of domestically produced rice. Since this system is an international commitment, Japan cannot unilaterally reduce the import volume, but its utilization and impact on the domestic market are constant subjects of debate. In the current issue of excessive rice inventory, the existence of Minimum Access Rice is sometimes pointed out as one of the elements complicating the market's supply-demand balance.
Changes in the Commercial Rice Market
Commercial rice refers to rice primarily distributed to the food service industry (restaurants, izakayas, school meal centers, etc.) and for processed foods (onigiri, frozen rice products, rice crackers, etc.). Unlike household rice, it is traded in large volumes, with specific quality and price ranges often prioritized. Significant changes in this commercial rice market are deeply involved in the background of the current excessive rice inventory. The global spread of COVID-19 from 2020 dealt a devastating blow to the food service industry, with requests for business closures and reduced operating hours for restaurants drastically reducing demand for commercial rice. The demand for commercial rice, which had been stable at around 2 million tons annually, plummeted significantly, and as the recovery of the food service industry has been slow, this reduction has accumulated as domestic inventory. For example, demand for varieties like Koshihikari and Hinohikari, which were traded in hundreds of thousands of tons annually before the pandemic for commercial use, drastically decreased, making it difficult to find new sales channels. Even after the pandemic subsided, changes in people's lifestyles (entrenchment of home cooking, increased choices other than rice due to health consciousness, etc.) and reduced dining out due to rising prices mean that commercial rice demand has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. This has led to rice that would otherwise have gone to food service or processing remaining stagnant, contributing to the inventory surplus.
Rice Supply-Demand Adjustment (Production Adjustment)
Rice supply-demand adjustment, particularly the former production adjustment (commonly known as the 'gentan policy' or 'set-aside policy'), was a national policy aimed at stabilizing rice prices and farmer incomes by restricting acreage. Although it was implemented for a long time from the 1970s, it was abolished in 2018. The background to the abolition of the gentan policy included international criticism and arguments that the policy hindered market principles. After the abolition, the government no longer sets production targets, and producers decide planting areas autonomously based on market trends. However, this autonomous adjustment is currently not functioning sufficiently. When good harvests continue, individual farmers tend to maintain or expand their acreage to secure profits, which can result in an overall production surplus. Furthermore, cultivating multiple varieties or selecting high-yield varieties to avoid the risk of adverse weather also contributes to increased total production. Moreover, the impact of climate change has led to more stable harvests compared to the past, also contributing to increased production. While demand is decreasing, the continued difficulty of autonomous adjustment on the production side has resulted in an oversupply of rice in the market, leading to a vicious cycle of price declines and excessive inventory. The government is promoting rice for processing and export support as countermeasures against excess inventory, but fundamental supply-demand adjustment remains a challenge.