【海外の反応】2027年のMLBロックアウトは避けられなさそうだな → 「サラリーキャップじゃなくても手はありそうなもんだが」「金を使いたがらないオーナー達のせいだろ」
Global concerns are mounting that MLB might face another lockout in 2027, leading to sharply divided opinions.
Some attribute the issue to the absence of a salary cap, while others criticize team owners for their reluctance to spend.
This signals intense negotiations over player salaries and working conditions are likely to resume between players and club management.
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Lockout (MLB)
An MLB lockout is a type of labor dispute where team owners prohibit players from using facilities, suspend salary payments, and cause game cancellations or delays in the season's start. This occurs when negotiations for a revised Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the Players Association and the owners fail to reach a resolution by the deadline. MLB has experienced multiple lockouts historically, notably in 1994, when a strike (work stoppage by players) and lockout combined for about seven months, leading to the unprecedented cancellation of the World Series. More recently, a lockout from December 2, 2021, to March 10, 2022, froze player contracts and transfers for approximately 99 days, threatening the season's opening. Although a reduction in regular season games was avoided, it significantly impacted spring training and the free-agent market. The concern about an unavoidable lockout in 2027 stems from the current CBA expiring after the 2026 season, making it highly likely that tensions between both parties will escalate again. Key contentious issues include player salaries, arbitration, free agency eligibility, and revenue sharing.
Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA)
The MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) is a comprehensive labor contract between the MLB owners' organization and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA). This agreement sets out broad rules concerning overall player working conditions, rights, and league operations that individual player contracts do not cover. Specifically, it includes a wide range of items such as minimum salaries, conditions for acquiring Free Agent (FA) rights, the salary arbitration mechanism, trade rules, the draft system, doping tests, postseason distribution, and general principles for league-wide revenue sharing. The current CBA was signed in March 2022 and is valid until the end of the 2026 season. As this agreement approaches its expiration, the Players Association typically seeks better terms, particularly improved treatment for younger players and earlier FA eligibility, while owners advocate for revenue stability and competitive balance. The two sides' demands often conflict, and difficult negotiations increase the risk of labor disputes like lockouts or strikes. The concern for a 2027 lockout is based on the prediction that negotiations for the next CBA revision will likely be challenging again.
Salary Cap / Luxury Tax (CBT)
A "salary cap" is a system in professional sports leagues that sets an upper limit on the total amount of money each team can spend on player salaries. While other major professional sports leagues like the NFL and NBA have salary caps, MLB does not. Instead, MLB has a system called the "Competitive Balance Tax (CBT)," commonly known as the "luxury tax." This mechanism taxes teams whose total payroll exceeds a certain threshold (the tax line). For example, the tax line for 2024 is set at $237 million (approximately 37 billion JPY), and teams exceeding this amount are subject to progressively higher tax rates. The tax rate increases to 20% for the first offense, 30% for the second, and 50% for the third and subsequent offenses. Furthermore, significantly exceeding the tax line can lead to penalties such as the forfeiture of draft picks. The purpose of this system is to prevent wealthy clubs from acquiring unlimited star players and disrupting competitive balance within the league. However, since it is not as strict an upper limit as a salary cap, well-funded teams can still acquire high-priced players by paying the tax. The opinion in the article, "There must be solutions even without a salary cap," questions the current effectiveness of the luxury tax and the owners' stance on curbing spending. The Players Association strongly opposes the introduction of a salary cap, which would restrict player salaries.