【為替相場】先日の口先介入の影響は徐々に弱まる動き 1ドル159円台後半 米国はインフレ懸念で利下げ可能性はさらに後退へ
Despite Japan's recent verbal intervention, the yen continues to weaken, hovering in the upper 159 yen range against the dollar. Persistent inflation in the US means the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are increasingly unlikely, suggesting the yen's depreciation will likely continue for some time. Online, consumers are expressing distress over rising import prices.
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Verbal Intervention
"Verbal intervention" refers to actions by governments or central banks to influence market participants' psychology through official statements, aiming to curb excessive fluctuations in exchange rates. This differs from "actual intervention," which involves direct capital injection into the foreign exchange market. Specifically, officials like the Finance Minister, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, or the Bank of Japan Governor might make statements such as "we are increasingly vigilant about specific levels" or "we will not rule out any options" to deter speculative movements and convey the authorities' strong intent to the market. For instance, when the yen rapidly depreciated towards 150 yen against the dollar, a finance official might tell reporters, "We will take decisive action against speculative movements," to heighten market alert. While its short-term effects can calm market turbulence or prompt speculators to close positions, its impact tends to be short-lived if not accompanied by fundamental economic conditions or a substantial interest rate differential between Japan and the US. Especially when US monetary policy shows a clear direction and the Japan-US interest rate gap is structurally widening, it's considered difficult for Japan's verbal intervention alone to significantly alter major currency trends. The phrase "impact gradually fades" in this article suggests that the market has already factored in Japan's verbal intervention, and such statements are losing their power to move the market substantially. In other words, it reveals a situation where verbal cues alone are insufficient to fundamentally halt the yen's depreciation trend.
USD/JPY in the Upper 159 Yen Range
"USD/JPY in the Upper 159 Yen Range" indicates that the current exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar is at a level very close to 160 yen per dollar, specifically in the upper half of the 159 yen range. This level represents a historically rare depreciation of the yen in recent years, significantly impacting Japan's economy and daily life. For example, at the beginning of 2020, the rate hovered around the low 100 yen range per dollar, meaning the yen's value has fallen by approximately 50% in just a few years. This strong dollar and weak yen lead to soaring prices for imported goods. Everything Japan relies on importing, such as energy resources like crude oil and natural gas, food items like wheat and beef, and industrial products like smartphones and automotive parts, becomes more expensive, driving up our living expenses and corporate costs. For individual consumers, the effects are noticeable in significantly increased costs for overseas travel and rising prices for foreign luxury brands. Conversely, export-oriented companies benefit, as they receive more yen when converting dollars earned overseas, boosting their profits. However, looking at the Japanese economy as a whole, concerns are raised about a decrease in real income due to surging import prices and the hollowing out of domestic industries. Exchange rates are determined by various factors, including interest rate differentials, economic growth rates, trade balances, and monetary policies of each country. The current yen depreciation is primarily attributed to the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the US. The current situation, nearing the psychological threshold of 160 yen, also heightens vigilance towards currency intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan, making the market extremely sensitive.
US Inflation Concerns and Delayed Rate Cuts
"US Inflation Concerns and Delayed Rate Cuts" refers to a situation where inflationary pressures in the United States remain strong, leading the Federal Reserve (FRB), the central bank responsible for US monetary policy, to delay or push back the possibility of policy interest rate reductions (rate cuts) that the market had anticipated. The FRB aims to achieve both price stability and maximum employment. Since 2022, it has rapidly raised policy interest rates to curb record-high inflation. However, recent US economic indicators, particularly inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), have exceeded market expectations, with a persistent rise in service prices. Furthermore, employment statistics remain robust, suggesting that wage growth pressure might also contribute to inflation. In response to these conditions, FRB officials have repeatedly expressed a cautious stance, stating that "rate cuts will not occur until inflation sustainably converges to the 2% target." This has significantly rolled back market expectations for multiple rate cuts within the year, strengthening the view that the start of rate cuts will be delayed. The US not cutting interest rates, or delaying them, means that the significant interest rate differential with Japan will continue. This makes it easier for capital to flow into the dollar, which offers higher yields, and serves as a major structural factor contributing to a weaker yen and stronger dollar. In this article, the receding possibility of US rate cuts is seen as a background factor accelerating Japan's yen depreciation trend, posing a very challenging situation for Japanese currency authorities.