ジム・ロジャーズ「これから史上最大の弱気相場がやって来る。今は株は持つべきではない、持つべきは米ドルだ」
Famed investor Jim Rogers has issued a strong warning: "The greatest bear market in history is coming; sell your stocks immediately and hold U.S. dollars!"
While his predictions always draw attention, the use of "greatest in history" has sparked mixed reactions online, from "here we go again" to genuine apprehension.
Amid global inflation and rising interest rates, his remarks serve as a timely reminder for investors to reassess their assets.
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Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers is a legendary investor renowned for co-founding the Quantum Fund with George Soros and achieving exceptional returns. His investment philosophy is characterized not by concentrated stock picking, but by deep analysis of macroeconomic trends, geopolitical risks, and commodity market trends, seeking long-term investment opportunities. He has repeatedly warned of stock market bubbles, and was an early adopter of emerging market and commodity investments, consistently staying ahead of market trends. His latest pronouncement of "the greatest bear market in history" is not merely pessimism, but suggests he believes the financial market has entered an era where conventional wisdom no longer applies, due to a combination of structural global economic issues such as excessive monetary easing by central banks, accumulating government debt, and rising geopolitical tensions. His statements garner attention because many of his past predictions have proven accurate, prompting market participants to heed potential risks. For example, he pointed to market overheating before the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s and the Lehman Shock in 2008. Notably, he presents economic forecasts and specific investment strategies in his books, such as 'Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Investor's Road Map,' drawing considerable interest from investors.
Bear Market
A bear market refers to a condition where major stock market indices fall by 20% or more from their recent highs and this decline persists for several months to several years. Investor sentiment becomes pessimistic, and a negative cycle often ensues where deteriorating economic outlooks lead to further stock price declines. Historically, major bear markets have occurred repeatedly, such as the stock market crash during the Great Depression in 1929, Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, the Lehman Shock in 2008, and the initial phase of the COVID-19 shock in 2020. Jim Rogers' current warning of "the greatest in history" is not just about a temporary correction, but points to an unprecedented combination of global high inflation, rapid monetary tightening by major central banks, and ever-expanding government debt. There is a strong view that the "bill" for massive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing during the COVID-19 pandemic is now coming due, which could lead to a severe global recession and drive the stock market into an unprecedented decline. While past bear markets were often triggered by specific shocks, concerns are now rising that this time, deep-rooted structural issues will have widespread impact. The average duration of a bear market is typically around 9 months to 1.5 years, but Rogers' assessment suggests that this one could be longer and more severe than previous instances.
U.S. Dollar (USD)
The U.S. dollar, as the world's reserve currency, is one of the most crucial currencies in international transactions and financial markets. The rationale behind Jim Rogers' advocacy for "holding U.S. dollars" during a bear market lies in its status as a "safe-haven asset." When economic prospects become uncertain or markets become chaotic, investors tend to divest from risky assets (like stocks) and shift funds into assets perceived as relatively stable. In such times, the highly liquid and globally trusted U.S. dollar serves as a primary refuge. The fact that the U.S. is the world's largest economy and its government bonds are considered one of the safest investments further bolsters the dollar's reliability. Furthermore, the monetary policy of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (FRB), significantly influences the dollar's exchange rate. If the U.S. leads other nations in monetary tightening and raises policy interest rates, the dollar's attractiveness increases relatively, making it easier for investment capital to flow into the U.S. In the current global inflationary environment, with many countries moving towards monetary tightening, if the FRB's pace and scale of rate hikes surpass other nations, interest rate differentials will widen, potentially accelerating the dollar's appreciation. Rogers likely anticipates that in the forthcoming economic crisis, while other currencies destabilize, the U.S. dollar will maintain or even increase its relative value. However, some argue that the dollar is not an absolute safe haven due to its finite supply and the U.S.'s own fiscal challenges, but its relative superiority is still widely acknowledged.