住宅価格、ガチで終わる…原油高で建築資材高騰「見たことない値上げ幅」に工務店もドン引き

Link Between Crude Oil Prices and Construction Material Costs

Crude oil, often called the "blood" of modern society, is a fundamental energy source whose price fluctuations ripple across various industries, including construction materials. Direct impacts include petrochemical products like insulation (e.g., urethane foam), waterproofing sheets, adhesives, paints, sealants, and synthetic resin pipes and sashes. As these are based on petroleum-derived chemical products, a rise in crude oil prices directly increases their manufacturing costs, leading to higher product prices.

Indirectly, manufacturing and transportation costs also climb. Producing steel products, cement, and glass requires substantial energy (electricity, gas, heavy oil), and their costs surge in tandem with crude oil. Furthermore, fuel for ships and trucks, which support global logistics, is oil-derived, causing maritime freight and land transport fees to soar. This pushes up overall distribution costs for both imported and domestic materials. For instance, since the Russia-Ukraine invasion in 2022, high crude oil prices have heavily burdened global supply chains, making it difficult to secure already scarce materials and intensifying price competition. Some surveys report over a 20% year-on-year increase in construction material transport costs, contributing millions of yen to the final housing price.

Wood Shock

"Wood Shock" refers to the historic global surge in timber prices that occurred from late 2020 to 2022. It is a significant precedent for the current construction material price hikes. This phenomenon was primarily caused by a complex interplay of the following factors:

1. Demand-Supply Mismatch due to COVID-19: Lockdowns worldwide increased stay-at-home demand, boosting DIY and home renovation projects, which in turn sharply increased timber demand. Especially in the US, low-interest rate policies stimulated vigorous housing construction, consuming vast amounts of wood.
2. Supply Chain Disruptions: Simultaneously, sawmill closures, port congestion, container shortages, and soaring international transport costs disrupted timber supply. Maritime freight, in particular, quadrupled or more, driving up the price of imported timber.
3. Speculative Hoarding: Some speculative buying in anticipation of further price increases also contributed to the upward pressure.

Japan, heavily reliant on timber imports, was severely affected, with domestic timber prices rising in correlation. This forced many builders and house manufacturers to delay construction, renegotiate prices for contracted homes, and face significant business pressure. While the Wood Shock temporarily subsided, the current situation, exacerbated by high crude oil prices and a weak yen as highlighted in this article, has evolved into an "all-encompassing material price surge" affecting not just timber but also steel, cement, and resin products. This event underscores the vulnerability of supply chains and the instability of the global economy.

Construction Cost Index

The Construction Cost Index is a numerical representation of fluctuations in construction expenses, including material, labor, and machinery/equipment costs. Regularly published by organizations like the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and the Construction Research Institute, it serves as a vital indicator of cost trends within the construction industry. Generally, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects trends in personal consumption, the Construction Cost Index reflects the "prices" in the construction sector.

This index plays a crucial role in budget planning for construction projects, reviewing contract prices, and forecasting future real estate values. For example, if the index significantly rises between contract signing and commencement of work, the initial budget may no longer be sufficient, often necessitating price adjustments between the client and the contractor. The phrase "unprecedented price hikes" in the article likely refers to the current situation where this Construction Cost Index is rapidly escalating to an extent not seen before. Indeed, since 2020, especially after the Wood Shock, a combination of surging material prices, increased import costs due to the weak yen, and rising labor costs has driven the Construction Cost Index on a sharp upward trend.

Data from the Construction Research Institute shows that with 2020 as 100, the overall Construction Cost Index reached 130-140 in some regions by the end of 2023, indicating that construction costs have risen by over 30% in just a few years. For an industry where a few percentage points of fluctuation over several years was common, this is truly an "abnormal situation," and it's no wonder that builders are "appalled." If this index remains high or continues to rise, it will ultimately be passed on to housing sales prices, making home ownership even more challenging for general consumers.