高市「ナフサ在庫はある」企業「作れば作るほど赤字」←この温度差ｗｗｗｗｗｗｗ
Despite Minister Takaichi's assertion of sufficient naphtha stock, businesses on the ground lament that increased production only leads to deeper losses.
This significant perception gap between the government and industry has sparked widespread concern online, with many fearing for the future of Japan's manufacturing sector.
The harsh economic reality is clear: stable supply means nothing if production is unprofitable.
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Takaichi: "Naphtha Stock is Sufficient." Businesses: "The More We Produce, The More We Lose Money." — The Alarming Disparity!
Naphtha
Naphtha is one of the petroleum products obtained by refining crude oil, referring to a light hydrocarbon mixture with a relatively low boiling range. In the petrochemical industry, it is indispensable as a primary feedstock for basic chemicals such as ethylene, propylene, and butadiene. These basic chemicals are further used in the manufacturing of countless products around us, including polyethylene, polypropylene, synthetic rubber, synthetic fibers, various plastics, detergents, and paints. For example, naphtha-derived materials are widely used in everything from automotive interior parts to smartphone casings, clothing, and food packaging. Japan relies almost entirely on imports for crude oil, and naphtha is no exception. Therefore, fluctuations in international crude oil prices and exchange rates (yen depreciation) directly impact naphtha import prices, consequently having a significant effect on the manufacturing costs of Japan's petrochemical products. Minister Takaichi's statement, "Naphtha stock is sufficient," was likely intended to dispel concerns about supply disruption. However, even with available stock, if its procurement price soars, the production costs for companies using it as a raw material will increase, making them highly susceptible to falling into the "negative margin" (gyaku-zaya) situation described later. The core of the "perception gap" highlighted in this article is that merely having "stock available" does not solve the management challenges faced by businesses.
Petrochemical Complex
A petrochemical complex is a large-scale industrial cluster where petroleum refining facilities and petrochemical product manufacturing facilities collaborate to achieve integrated production from raw materials to final products. In Japan, representative complexes exist in Chiba, Kawasaki, Yokkaichi, Okayama, Iwakuni-Otake, Tokuyama, and Shunan (Yamaguchi), supporting Japan's key industries since the post-war period of high economic growth. In these complexes, crude oil is first refined to produce naphtha, which is then thermally cracked to extract basic chemicals like ethylene and propylene. Furthermore, numerous factories that manufacture various plastics, chemical fibers, and synthetic rubber using these basic chemicals as raw materials are concentrated. The complex format allows for efficient raw material supply, mutual utilization of energy, and effective use of by-products, leading to reduced production costs and the establishment of an efficient supply chain. However, these facilities require enormous capital investment and maintenance costs, making them highly vulnerable to fluctuations in raw material and energy prices. Particularly in recent years, with an increase in petrochemical plants in the Middle East and North America that use inexpensive natural gas as a raw material, Japan's naphtha-based petrochemical industry is at a disadvantage in international cost competition. The background to companies' complaints of "the more we produce, the more we lose money" is believed to be the overall deterioration of profitability within the complex, where soaring naphtha, fuel, and electricity costs, as well as maintenance costs for aging equipment, exceed the sales prices of products.
Negative Margin (Gyaku-zaya)
Gyaku-zaya (negative margin) is an economic term referring to a state where the procurement cost or manufacturing cost of a product exceeds its selling price. Typically, companies set selling prices by adding profit to their costs when manufacturing and selling products (a positive margin, or jun-zaya). However, gyaku-zaya can occur due to various factors, such as sharp increases in raw material prices, exchange rate fluctuations, or intensified price competition due to unexpected drops in demand. In the context of the article, it suggests a situation where naphtha prices have surged, significantly increasing the cost of petrochemical products manufactured using it, yet it's impossible to adequately raise the sales prices in the final product market. For example, if the price of naphtha skyrockets from 50,000 yen to 100,000 yen per ton, and the price of plastic products made from it cannot be increased proportionally, the manufacturing cost per product will exceed its selling price, causing losses to expand with every sale. In such circumstances, companies lose the incentive to continue production and are forced to consider reduced operating rates, temporary plant shutdowns, or, in the worst-case scenario, withdrawal from the business. Even if the government emphasizes supply stability by stating "stock is available," there is no incentive for companies to use that stock to produce if they cannot sell at a price that covers their costs. Gyaku-zaya is a serious problem that threatens the survival of businesses, and resolving it requires not only efforts to reduce costs but also appropriate price pass-through to the market and government support measures (e.g., subsidies, tax incentives).