イラン革命防衛隊、米イスラエルの同盟国に出入りする船舶の“ホルムズ海峡通航を禁止”
Uh-oh! Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly declared that ships from countries cooperating with the U.S. and Israel are prohibited from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
This could trigger a major global disruption, potentially halting the movement of crude oil and other goods, and there's a serious risk of oil prices skyrocketing.
Online reactions are tense, with comments like 'Here we go again,' 'Are they really going to do it?' and 'The world economy is doomed.'
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Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strait, approximately 50km wide, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is a critically important choke point for the global economy, particularly for crude oil transportation. Roughly 20% of crude oil exported by major oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE passes through this strait. Specifically, over 20 million barrels of oil daily and about one-third of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) are transported via this route. Asian countries, including Japan, import large quantities of crude oil from the Middle East through this strait, making its stable passage directly linked to their economic security. If this strait were to be closed, the global energy supply chain would be severed, crude oil prices would skyrocket, and international economic activity would likely suffer devastating damage. Iran has hinted at closing the strait several times in the past, and this latest announcement suggests that threat is becoming more realistic. While the right of innocent passage is guaranteed under international law, Iran has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, leading to increased international tension over its interpretation and enforceability.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is an elite military organization directly subordinate to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Unlike conventional national armies, it was established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution with the aim of safeguarding the revolution's ideals and system. The IRGC encompasses ground, naval, and air forces, along with intelligence agencies and the paramilitary Basij organization. It is deeply involved not only in maintaining internal security in Iran but also in extending Iran's influence in regional conflicts abroad. Its naval division, in particular, is tasked with guarding the Strait of Hormuz and conducting operations in the Persian Gulf, and has frequently been reported in incidents involving foreign vessels. The IRGC is also believed to be involved in Iran's missile development and nuclear-related activities, and has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. This "passage ban" statement was issued not through Iran's usual diplomatic channels but by the IRGC, vividly demonstrating their immense influence in Iran's foreign policy and the military weight of their decisions. Their hardline stance is believed to be intended to make the world aware of Iran's security concerns in the region.
Right of Innocent Passage and International Straits
The right of innocent passage is a right guaranteed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), allowing foreign vessels to freely pass through the territorial sea of a coastal state as long as it does not prejudice the peace, good order, or security of that state. Especially for international straits like the Strait of Hormuz, which connect two parts of the high seas (or exclusive economic zones), this right holds significant importance for international navigation and is applied as a more enhanced 'transit passage' right. Under transit passage, submarines can pass submerged, and aircraft can fly over. However, Iran has not ratified UNCLOS and has indicated the possibility of suspending or restricting innocent passage in its territorial waters of the Strait of Hormuz based on its own judgment, rather than abiding by the transit passage rights under the treaty. The international community, particularly the United States and its allies, strongly asserts adherence to international law and freedom of navigation in this strait. Iran's latest statement could trigger serious legal and diplomatic conflicts between these international norms and Iran's sovereign position. Historically, disputes over passage rights have occurred in places like the Suez Canal and the Dardanelles, bringing tension to the international community each time.